2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc. Reinforced by a bust risk 20 points lower and 30-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Cortez Broughton (age 22.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #104 (range #73-#135, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kristjan Sokoli, Tyeler Davison (Franchise), Maliek Collins (Starter). Ceiling is Grady Jarrett (Franchise); floor is Kristjan Sokoli. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #104 sits within 8 spots of the room's #96 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 45% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Vosean Joseph (age 21.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #134 (range #94-#174, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Blake Martinez (Starter), Raekwon McMillan, Duke Riley (Bust). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. Drafted #147 by BUF in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 29 spots below the room's consensus #105 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.