2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 120-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 8 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Caleb Wilson (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #251 (range #219-#283, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: MyCole Pruitt (Starter), Maxx Williams (Starter), Tyler Kroft (Starter). Ceiling is Maxx Williams (Starter); floor is MyCole Pruitt (Starter). Drafted #254 by ARI in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #182 and the model won't take him before #251 — a 69-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jace Sternberger (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #81-#181, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Thomas Duarte (Bust), Jordan Leggett, Evan Engram (Bust). Ceiling is Nick Vannett (Starter); floor is Jordan Leggett. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Thomas Duarte, Evan Engram, Adam Shaheen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #75 and the model won't take him before #131 — a 56-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.75s) leads the case against.