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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (S)
KW
Khari Willis
S · Michigan St.
23.0 yo · 5'11" · 213 lb
ME
Mike Edwards
S · Kentucky
22.9 yo · 5'10" · 205 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Mike Edwards over Khari Willis.

Decisive factor: 24-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Khari Willis
Predicted pick
#163
range #133–#193
Bust probability· rough estimate
7%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Mike Edwards
Predicted pick
#139
range #107–#171
Bust probability· rough estimate
7%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#138
on 4 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Khari Willis· CB / S
  • Mike Edwards· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMike Edwards57
  • AthleticismKhari Willis37
  • AgeMike Edwards47
  • ConsensusMike Edwards34
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Khari Willis50
  • Breakout ageKhari Willis50
  • WorkloadKhari Willis100
  • RAS × productionKhari Willis26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Nathan GerryS · Bust→ shared byKhari WillisMike Edwards
  • Rayshawn JenkinsS · Bust→ shared byKhari WillisMike Edwards
Khari Willis
  • Nathan Gerryshared
    S · #184
    Bust
  • Shalom Luani
    S · #221
    Bust
  • Rayshawn Jenkinsshared
    S · #113
    Bust
  • Jordan Lucas
    S · #204
    Bust
  • Clayton Fejedelem
    S · #245
    Contributor
Mike Edwards
  • Nathan Gerryshared
    S · #184
    Bust
  • Josh Jones
    S · #61
    Bust
  • Tedric Thompson
    S · #111
    Bust
  • Xavier Woods
    S · #191
    Bust
  • Rayshawn Jenkinsshared
    S · #113
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Khari Willis
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Nathan Gerry, Shalom Luani, Rayshawn Jenkins (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Mike Edwards
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Nathan Gerry, Josh Jones, Tedric Thompson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    5 boards have him at mean rank #89; model has him #139 — a 50-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Khari WillisMike Edwards· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Khari Willis

Draftanomics projects Khari Willis (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #163 (range #133-#193, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Nathan Gerry (Bust), Shalom Luani (Bust), Rayshawn Jenkins (Bust). Ceiling is Clayton Fejedelem (Contributor); floor is Shalom Luani (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Nathan Gerry, Shalom Luani, Rayshawn Jenkins (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #163 sits within 9 spots of the room's #154 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 7% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Mike Edwards

Draftanomics projects Mike Edwards (age 22.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #139 (range #107-#171, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Nathan Gerry (Bust), Josh Jones (Bust), Tedric Thompson (Bust). Ceiling is Josh Jones (Bust); floor is Xavier Woods (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Nathan Gerry, Josh Jones, Tedric Thompson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #89 and the model won't take him before #139 — a 50-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.