2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc. Reinforced by 16-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Darius Slayton (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #186 (range #162-#210, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kolby Listenbee, Rashad Greene (Starter), Jordan Payton (Bust). Ceiling is Rashad Greene (Starter); floor is Kolby Listenbee. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Payton, Chris Godwin, Malcolm Mitchell. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #106 and the model won't take him before #186 — a 80-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Miles Boykin (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #170 (range #156-#184, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Sammie Coates (Starter), Chris Conley (Franchise), Rashad Greene (Starter). Ceiling is Chris Conley (Franchise); floor is Rashad Greene (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #99 and the model won't take him before #170 — a 71-spot markdown. The 71-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.