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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
TJ
Ty Johnson
RB · Maryland
21.6 yo · — · —
TH
Travis Homer
RB · Miami (FL)
20.7 yo · 5'10" · 201 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Ty Johnson over Travis Homer.

Decisive factor: 53-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Ty Johnson
Predicted pick
#181
range #124–#274
Bust probability
25%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Travis Homer
Predicted pick
#234
range #97–#249
Bust probability
15%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Ty Johnson· RB / WR / TE
  • Travis Homer· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTy Johnson32
  • AthleticismTravis Homer53
  • AgeTy Johnson84
  • ConsensusTy Johnson23
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Ty Johnson50
  • Breakout ageTy Johnson50
  • WorkloadTy Johnson100
  • RAS × productionTy Johnson0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Ty Johnson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Travis Homer
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Ty Johnson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Travis Homer
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Ty JohnsonTravis Homer· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Ty Johnson

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting: yards per route run from the slot, best season; −0.02 charting total career snaps

Travis Homer

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 lowest board ranking; −0.02 charting total career snaps