3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Emeke Egbule (age 22.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #86 (range #67-#105, wide band). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Anthony Walker (Bust), Elijah Lee (Bust), Jayon Brown (Bust). Ceiling is Jayon Brown (Bust); floor is Elijah Lee (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Anthony Walker, Elijah Lee, Jayon Brown (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 46 spots ahead of the room (board #86 vs consensus #132), and at a 45% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Deshaun Davis (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #208 (range #182-#234, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Duke Riley (Bust), Jordan Evans (Bust), Antwione Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Jordan Evans (Bust). Drafted #210 by CIN in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #208 against a consensus #225 is a 17-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Ryan Connelly (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #128 (range #104-#152, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Antwione Williams (Bust), Duke Riley (Bust), Vince Biegel (Bust). Ceiling is Duke Riley (Bust); floor is Antwione Williams (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Antwione Williams, Duke Riley, Vince Biegel (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 74 spots ahead of the room (board #128 vs consensus #202), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.