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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
MD
Michael Dogbe
EDGE · Temple
23.0 yo · — · —
SS
Sutton Smith
EDGE · Northern Illinois
23.1 yo · 6'0" · 233 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Michael Dogbe over Sutton Smith.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 65 points lower. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc and 34-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Michael Dogbe
Predicted pick
#111
range #79–#143
Bust probability
0%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Sutton Smith
Predicted pick
#145
range #93–#197
Bust probability
65%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Michael Dogbe· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Sutton Smith· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMichael Dogbe38
  • AthleticismMichael Dogbe41
  • AgeMichael Dogbe43
  • ConsensusMichael Dogbe21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Michael Dogbe50
  • Breakout ageMichael Dogbe50
  • WorkloadMichael Dogbe100
  • RAS × productionMichael Dogbe0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Michael Dogbe
  • Marcus Hardison
    EDGE · #135
    TBD
  • Ronald Blair
    EDGE · #142
    Starter
  • Brian Mihalik
    EDGE · #237
    Bust
  • Jonathan Woodard
    EDGE · #226
    TBD
  • Za'Darius Smith
    EDGE · #122
    Franchise
Sutton Smith
  • Tarell Basham
    EDGE · #80
    Bust
  • Ejuan Price
    EDGE · #234
    Bust
  • Takkarist McKinley
    EDGE · #26
    Bust
  • Derek Barnett
    EDGE · #14
    Bust
  • Dawuane Smoot
    EDGE · #68
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Michael Dogbe
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #370; model has him #111 — a 259-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Ronald Blair, Za'Darius Smith.
Sutton Smith
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #175 by PIT in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #321; model has him #145 — a 176-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Michael DogbeSutton Smith· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Michael Dogbe

Draftanomics projects Michael Dogbe (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #111 (range #79-#143, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Marcus Hardison, Ronald Blair (Starter), Brian Mihalik (Bust). Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is Jonathan Woodard. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 259 spots ahead of the room (board #111 vs consensus #370), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Sutton Smith

Draftanomics projects Sutton Smith (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #145 (range #93-#197, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tarell Basham (Bust), Ejuan Price (Bust), Takkarist McKinley (Bust). Ceiling is Derek Barnett (Bust); floor is Ejuan Price (Bust). Drafted #175 by PIT in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 176 spots ahead of the room (board #145 vs consensus #321) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.