2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 54 points lower. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc and 24-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Michael Dogbe (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #111 (range #79-#143, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 22% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Marcus Hardison, Ronald Blair (Starter), Brian Mihalik (Bust). Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is Jonathan Woodard. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 259 spots ahead of the room (board #111 vs consensus #370), and at a 22% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects P.J. Johnson (age 22.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #135 (range #111-#159, wide band). Bust probability sits at 76% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jeremiah Ledbetter (Bust), Avery Moss (Bust), Jonathan Woodard. Ceiling is Ronald Blair (Starter); floor is Jonathan Woodard. Drafted #229 by DET in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #135 stands alone — and with bust risk at 76%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.