2 prospects · 2019 draft
Stephen Denmark and Jordan Brown project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Stephen Denmark (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #226 (range #209-#243, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #238 by CHI in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #226 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Brown (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #225 (range #177-#273, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: James Bradberry (Starter), Jack Tocho, Trey Caldwell (Bust). Ceiling is James Bradberry (Starter); floor is Jack Tocho. Drafted #223 by CIN in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #194 and the model won't take him before #225 — a 31-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.