2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: $13M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV. Reinforced by 17-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Drew Sample (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #129 (range #106-#152, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Austin Hooper (Starter), Jerell Adams (Contributor), Jeremy Sprinkle (Bust). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Jerell Adams (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #82 and the model won't take him before #129 — a 48-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Dawson Knox (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #112 (range #77-#147, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Austin Hooper (Starter), Michael Roberts (Bust), Jordan Leggett. Ceiling is Austin Hooper (Starter); floor is Jordan Leggett. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Michael Roberts, Thomas Duarte. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #90 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.