2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 58 points lower. Reinforced by 16-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ryan Finley (age 24.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #197 (range #138-#256, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Garrett Grayson, Carson Wentz (Starter), Connor Cook (Bust). Ceiling is Trevor Siemian (Franchise); floor is Brandon Allen. Age 24.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #72 and the model won't take him before #197 — a 124-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Will Grier (age 24.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #213 (range #170-#256, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 58% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Chad Kelly, Jeff Driskel, Cody Kessler (Starter). Ceiling is Jacoby Brissett (Starter); floor is Chad Kelly. Age 24.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #90 and the model won't take him before #213 — a 123-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.