2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 148-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kahale Warring (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #59 (range #44-#74, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jesse James (Franchise), Jeremy Sprinkle (Bust), Malcolm Johnson (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Bucky Hodges. Drafted #86 by HOU in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 30 spots ahead of the room (board #59 vs consensus #89) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Trevon Wesco (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #171-#243, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jerell Adams (Contributor), George Kittle (Bust), Jeremy Sprinkle (Bust). Ceiling is Randall Telfer (Starter); floor is Jerell Adams (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: George Kittle, Jeremy Sprinkle, Adam Shaheen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #136 and the model won't take him before #207 — a 70-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.