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Draftanomics

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
DL
David Long
CB · Michigan
21.2 yo · 5'11" · 196 lb
TM
Trayvon Mullen
CB · Clemson
21.6 yo · 6'1" · 199 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Trayvon Mullen over David Long.

Decisive factor: 40-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

David Long
Predicted pick
#70
range #27–#113
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
#96
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Trayvon Mullen
Predicted pick
#30
range #1–#59
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#69
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • David Long· CB / S
  • Trayvon Mullen· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTrayvon Mullen95
  • AthleticismDavid Long37
  • AgeDavid Long89
  • ConsensusTrayvon Mullen34
  • Per-play impact (PPA)David Long50
  • Breakout ageDavid Long50
  • WorkloadDavid Long100
  • RAS × productionDavid Long26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Sidney JonesCB · Bust→ shared byDavid LongTrayvon Mullen
  • Cameron SuttonCB · Bust→ shared byDavid LongTrayvon Mullen
  • Quincy WilsonCB · Bust→ shared byDavid LongTrayvon Mullen
  • Zack SanchezCB · Bust→ shared byDavid LongTrayvon Mullen
David Long
  • Sidney Jonesshared
    CB · #43
    Bust
  • Cameron Suttonshared
    CB · #94
    Bust
  • Quincy Wilsonshared
    CB · #46
    Bust
  • Marquez White
    CB · #216
    TBD
  • Zack Sanchezshared
    CB · #141
    Bust
Trayvon Mullen
  • Marlon Humphrey
    CB · #16
    Bust
  • Sidney Jonesshared
    CB · #43
    Bust
  • Quincy Wilsonshared
    CB · #46
    Bust
  • Zack Sanchezshared
    CB · #141
    Bust
  • Cameron Suttonshared
    CB · #94
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

David Long
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Sidney Jones, Cameron Sutton, Quincy Wilson (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Trayvon Mullen
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    24 boards place him at mean rank #69; model has him #30 — a 39-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Marlon Humphrey, Sidney Jones, Quincy Wilson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
David LongTrayvon Mullen· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

David Long

Draftanomics projects David Long (age 21.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #70 (range #27-#113, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Sidney Jones (Bust), Cameron Sutton (Bust), Quincy Wilson (Bust). Ceiling is Marquez White; floor is Zack Sanchez (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Sidney Jones, Cameron Sutton, Quincy Wilson (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #70 sits within 8 spots of the room's #78 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Trayvon Mullen

Draftanomics projects Trayvon Mullen (age 21.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #30 (range #1-#59, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Marlon Humphrey (Bust), Sidney Jones (Bust), Quincy Wilson (Bust). Ceiling is Marlon Humphrey (Bust); floor is Zack Sanchez (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Marlon Humphrey, Sidney Jones, Quincy Wilson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 39 spots ahead of the room (board #30 vs consensus #69), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.