3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nick Scott (age 23.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #220 (range #180-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Michael Tyson, Marcus Maye (Bust), Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise). Ceiling is Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise); floor is Michael Tyson. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Marcus Maye, Treston Decoud, Rayshawn Jenkins. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #220 stands alone — and with bust risk at 11%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Donovan Wilson (age 24.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #222 (range #182-#262, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Michael Tyson, Marcus Maye (Bust), Treston Decoud (Bust). Ceiling is Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise); floor is Michael Tyson. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Marcus Maye, Treston Decoud, Rayshawn Jenkins. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #222 stands alone — and with bust risk at 11%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Marquise Blair (age 21.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #118 (range #60-#176, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 2% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Lano Hill (Bust), Rudy Ford (Bust), Keanu Neal (Starter). Ceiling is Keanu Neal (Starter); floor is Jalen Mills (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Lano Hill, Rudy Ford, Marcus Williams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 31 spots ahead of the room (board #118 vs consensus #149), and at a 2% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.