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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
AB
A.J. Brown
WR · Mississippi
21.8 yo · 6'0" · 226 lb
DM
D.K. Metcalf
WR · Mississippi
21.4 yo · 6'3" · 228 lb
JA
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
WR · Stanford
22.3 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

A.J. Brown
Predicted pick
#48
range #22–#152
Bust probability
1%
Consensus rank
#34
on 26 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$36Mmodel
D.K. Metcalf
Predicted pick
#23
range #11–#66
Bust probability
17%
Consensus rank
#18
on 26 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$30Mmodel
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Predicted pick
#87
range #31–#208
Bust probability
1%
Consensus rank
#59
on 22 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • A.J. Brown· RB / WR / TE
  • D.K. Metcalf· RB / WR / TE
  • JJ Arcega-Whiteside· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionA.J. Brown32
  • AthleticismD.K. Metcalf70
  • AgeJJ Arcega-Whiteside77
  • ConsensusD.K. Metcalf78
  • Per-play impact (PPA)A.J. Brown50
  • Breakout ageA.J. Brown50
  • WorkloadA.J. Brown100
  • RAS × productionA.J. Brown45

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
A.J. Brown
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
D.K. Metcalf
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

A.J. Brown
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
D.K. Metcalf
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
A.J. BrownD.K. MetcalfJJ Arcega-Whiteside· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

A.J. Brown

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.03 boards with him top-50; +0.02 HS recruit rating

D.K. Metcalf

+0.10 boards with him top-100; +0.05 scout consensus; +0.04 rank within position+class

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting: deep-route grade, final season; +0.02 boards with him top-50