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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (S)
ME
Mike Edwards
S · Kentucky
22.9 yo · 5'10" · 205 lb
MI
Marvell Tell III
S · USC
22.7 yo · 6'2" · 198 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Marvell Tell III over Mike Edwards.

Decisive factor: 31-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Mike Edwards
Projected range
Rounds 3-6
half went picks 91-192
Bust probability· rough estimate
7%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#138
on 4 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3.7M-$5.7Mmodel
Marvell Tell III
Projected range
Rounds 3-6
half went picks 91-192
Bust probability· rough estimate
16%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#142
on 4 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$1.7M-$2.6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Mike Edwards· CB / S
  • Marvell Tell III· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMike Edwards57
  • AthleticismMarvell Tell III100
  • AgeMarvell Tell III70
  • ConsensusMike Edwards34
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Mike Edwards50
  • Breakout ageMike Edwards50
  • WorkloadMike Edwards100
  • RAS × productionMike Edwards26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Mike Edwards
  • Nathan Gerry
    S · #184
    Bust
  • Josh Jones
    S · #61
    Bust
  • Tedric Thompson
    S · #111
    Bust
  • Xavier Woods
    S · #191
    Bust
  • Rayshawn Jenkins
    S · #113
    Bust
Marvell Tell III
  • Leon McQuay
    S · #218
    Bust
  • Deon Bush
    S · #124
    Contributor
  • Montae Nicholson
    S · #123
    Bust
  • Rudy Ford
    S · #208
    Bust
  • Mykkele Thompson
    S · #144
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Mike Edwards
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Nathan Gerry, Josh Jones, Tedric Thompson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Marvell Tell III
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    4 boards have him at consensus #142; model has him #108 — a 34-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Leon McQuay, Montae Nicholson, Rudy Ford (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Mike EdwardsMarvell Tell III· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Mike Edwards

Draftanomics projects Mike Edwards (age 22.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #139 (range #107-#171, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Nathan Gerry (Bust), Josh Jones (Bust), Tedric Thompson (Bust). Ceiling is Josh Jones (Bust); floor is Xavier Woods (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Nathan Gerry, Josh Jones, Tedric Thompson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #139 and the room's #138 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 7% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Marvell Tell III

Draftanomics projects Marvell Tell III (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #108 (range #81-#135, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Leon McQuay (Bust), Deon Bush (Contributor), Montae Nicholson (Bust). Ceiling is Deon Bush (Contributor); floor is Leon McQuay (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Leon McQuay, Montae Nicholson, Rudy Ford (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 34 spots ahead of the room (board #108 vs consensus #142), and at a 16% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.