3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Bobby Okereke (age 22.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #97 (range #58-#136, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Alex Anzalone (Bust), Duke Riley (Bust), Anthony Walker (Bust). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Elijah Lee (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Alex Anzalone, Duke Riley, Anthony Walker (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #97 sits within 9 spots of the room's #88 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Christian Miller (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #224 (range #202-#246, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Reuben Foster (Bust), Alex Anzalone (Bust), Duke Riley (Bust). Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Raekwon McMillan. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Reuben Foster, Alex Anzalone, Duke Riley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #84 and the model won't take him before #224 — a 140-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Cameron Smith (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #115 (range #84-#146, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Anthony Walker (Bust), Jarrad Davis (Bust), Alex Anzalone (Bust). Ceiling is Raekwon McMillan; floor is Anthony Walker (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Anthony Walker, Jarrad Davis, Alex Anzalone (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #115 sits within 5 spots of the room's #110 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 10% bust probability break ties on draft day.