2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 124-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $7M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Duke Shelley (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #191 (range #159-#223, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jamal Agnew (Bust), Ryan Murphy (Bust), Tye Smith (Bust). Ceiling is Steven Nelson (Starter); floor is LeShaun Sims (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jamal Agnew, Ryan Murphy, Tye Smith. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #191 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Jamel Dean (age 22.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #67 (range #24-#110, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Collins (Starter), Zack Sanchez (Bust), Charles Gaines (Bust). Ceiling is Jalen Collins (Starter); floor is Kevon Seymour (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Zack Sanchez, Charles Gaines, Alex Carter. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #67 against a consensus #93 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.