3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jason Strowbridge (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #181-#233, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Matt Judon (Starter), B.J. Dubose, Jeremiah Ledbetter (Bust). Ceiling is Henry Anderson (Franchise); floor is B.J. Dubose. Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #93 and the model won't take him before #207 — a 114-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Trevis Gipson (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #242 (range #199-#285, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 14% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Duke Ejiofor (Bust), Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Starter), Dawuane Smoot (Bust). Ceiling is Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Starter); floor is Justin Lawler (Bust). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Duke Ejiofor, Dawuane Smoot, Justin Lawler (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #95 and the model won't take him before #242 — a 147-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Darrell Taylor (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #204 (range #165-#243, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: B.J. Dubose, Breeland Speaks (Bust), Geneo Grissom (Contributor). Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is B.J. Dubose. Drafted #48 by SEA in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #89 and the model won't take him before #204 — a 115-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.