3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Justin Rohrwasser (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #208 (range #194-#222, wide band). Bust probability sits at 31% — real but not disqualifying. Drafted #159 by NWE in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #208 stands alone — and with bust risk at 31%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Sterling Hofrichter (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #219 (range #198-#240, wide band). Bust probability sits at 32% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Riley Dixon (Bust), Bradley Pinion (Bust), Johnny Townsend (Bust). Ceiling is Bradley Pinion (Bust); floor is Logan Cooke (Bust). RAS 0.61 (6th percentile vs P prospects in a 98-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #219 stands alone — and with bust risk at 32%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Tyler Bass (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #200 (range #184-#216, wide band). Bust probability sits at 31% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Logan Cooke (Bust), Johnny Townsend (Bust), Jason Sanders (Bust). Ceiling is Johnny Townsend (Bust); floor is Logan Cooke (Bust). RAS 2.39 (23th percentile vs K prospects in a 61-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 75 spots ahead of the room (board #200 vs consensus #275), and at a 31% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.