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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (K, P)
TB
Tyler Bass
K · Georgia Southern
23.2 yo · 5'10" · 185 lb
BM
Braden Mann
P · Texas A&M
22.4 yo · 5'11" · 198 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Braden Mann over Tyler Bass.

Decisive factor: 155-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tyler Bass
Predicted pick
#200
range #184–#216
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Braden Mann
Predicted pick
#45
range #20–#70
Bust probability
6%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tyler Bass· Specialists
  • Braden Mann· Specialists
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTyler Bass50
  • AthleticismBraden Mann100
  • AgeBraden Mann100
  • ConsensusBraden Mann100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tyler Bass50
  • Breakout ageTyler Bass50
  • WorkloadTyler Bass50
  • RAS × productionTyler Bass50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Logan CookeP · Bust→ shared byTyler BassBraden Mann
  • Johnny TownsendP · Bust→ shared byTyler BassBraden Mann
Tyler Bass
  • Logan Cookeshared
    P · #247
    Bust
  • Johnny Townsendshared
    P · #173
    Bust
  • Jason Sanders
    K · #229
    Bust
  • Zane Gonzalez
    K · #224
    Bust
  • Riley Dixon
    P · #228
    Bust
Braden Mann
  • Michael Dickson
    P · #149
    Bust
  • Logan Cookeshared
    P · #247
    Bust
  • Johnny Townsendshared
    P · #173
    Bust
  • JK Scott
    P · #172
    Bust
  • Lac Edwards
    P · #235
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tyler Bass
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Athletic profile below NFL threshold
    RAS 2.39 (23th percentile vs K prospects in a 61-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #275; model has him #200 — a 75-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Braden Mann
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.25 (42th percentile at P). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #170; model has him #45 — a 125-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Michael Dickson, Logan Cooke, Johnny Townsend (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Tyler BassBraden Mann· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tyler Bass

Draftanomics projects Tyler Bass (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #200 (range #184-#216, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Logan Cooke (Bust), Johnny Townsend (Bust), Jason Sanders (Bust). Ceiling is Johnny Townsend (Bust); floor is Logan Cooke (Bust). RAS 2.39 (23th percentile vs K prospects in a 61-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 75 spots ahead of the room (board #200 vs consensus #275), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Braden Mann

Draftanomics projects Braden Mann (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #45 (range #20-#70, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Michael Dickson (Bust), Logan Cooke (Bust), Johnny Townsend (Bust). Ceiling is Michael Dickson (Bust); floor is Logan Cooke (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Michael Dickson, Logan Cooke, Johnny Townsend (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 125 spots ahead of the room (board #45 vs consensus #170), and at a 6% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.