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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2020 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OT, G)
JH
Justin Herron
OT · Wake Forest
— · — · —
HA
Hakeem Adeniji
OT · Kansas
— · — · —
LS
Logan Stenberg
G · Kentucky
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Justin Herron
Predicted pick
#220
range #137–#271
Bust probability· rough estimate
6%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Hakeem Adeniji
Predicted pick
#165
range #52–#249
Bust probability· rough estimate
6%
Consensus rank
#98
on 3 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Logan Stenberg
Predicted pick
#106
range #26–#214
Bust probability
64%
Consensus rank
#131
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Justin Herron· Offensive line
  • Hakeem Adeniji· Offensive line
  • Logan Stenberg· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJustin Herron50
  • AthleticismHakeem Adeniji16
  • AgeLogan Stenberg69
  • ConsensusHakeem Adeniji22
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Justin Herron50
  • Breakout ageJustin Herron50
  • WorkloadJustin Herron50
  • RAS × productionLogan Stenberg73

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Justin Herron
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Hakeem Adeniji
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Logan Stenberg
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Justin Herron
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Hakeem Adeniji
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Logan Stenberg
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Justin HerronHakeem AdenijiLogan Stenberg· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Justin Herron

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting gap run block grade; +0.03 age

Hakeem Adeniji

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting gap run block grade; +0.02 HS recruit rating

Logan Stenberg

−0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting gap run block grade; +0.03 age