2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: 136-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 57 points lower and $14M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Devin Asiasi (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #249 (range #214-#284, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ian Thomas (Starter), Malcolm Johnson (Starter), Gerald Everett (Bust). Ceiling is Mark Andrews (Starter); floor is Malcolm Johnson (Starter). RAS 4.44 (44th percentile at TE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #83 and the model won't take him before #249 — a 166-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Cole Kmet (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #113 (range #82-#144, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Evan Engram (Bust), David Njoku (Bust), Ian Thomas (Starter). Ceiling is Austin Hooper (Starter); floor is Jordan Leggett. School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 40-yard dash of 4.70s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #66 and the model won't take him before #113 — a 47-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.70s) leads the case against.