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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
JE
Jacob Eason
QB · Washington
22.4 yo · 6'6" · 231 lb
NS
Nate Stanley
QB · Iowa
22.7 yo · 6'4" · 235 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Jacob Eason over Nate Stanley.

Decisive factor: 93-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 65 points lower and a stronger historical comp arc.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jacob Eason
Predicted pick
#105
range #68–#142
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
#83
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Nate Stanley
Predicted pick
#198
range #156–#240
Bust probability· rough estimate
65%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jacob Eason· QB
  • Nate Stanley· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJacob Eason0
  • AthleticismJacob Eason0
  • AgeJacob Eason94
  • ConsensusNate Stanley4
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jacob Eason50
  • Breakout ageJacob Eason50
  • WorkloadJacob Eason50
  • RAS × productionJacob Eason0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jacob Eason
  • Brett Hundley
    QB · #147
    Starter
  • Joshua Dobbs
    QB · #135
    TBD
  • Cody Kessler
    QB · #93
    Starter
  • Chad Kelly
    QB · #253
    TBD
  • Jeff Driskel
    QB · #207
    TBD
Nate Stanley
  • Jake Rudock
    QB · #191
    Bust
  • Davis Webb
    QB · #87
    TBD
  • C.J. Beathard
    QB · #104
    Bust
  • Brad Kaaya
    QB · #215
    TBD
  • Trevor Siemian
    QB · #250
    Franchise

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jacob Eason
Risks
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.296 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Brett Hundley, Cody Kessler. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Nate Stanley
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #244 by MIN in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jake Rudock, C.J. Beathard. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.263 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #159; model has him #198 — a 39-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jacob EasonNate Stanley· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jacob Eason

Draftanomics projects Jacob Eason (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #105 (range #68-#142, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brett Hundley (Starter), Joshua Dobbs, Cody Kessler (Starter). Ceiling is Cody Kessler (Starter); floor is Chad Kelly. PPA avg_all 0.296 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 30 spots below the room's consensus #75 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.

Nate Stanley

Draftanomics projects Nate Stanley (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #198 (range #156-#240, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jake Rudock (Bust), Davis Webb, C.J. Beathard (Bust). Ceiling is Trevor Siemian (Franchise); floor is Brad Kaaya. Drafted #244 by MIN in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #159 and the model won't take him before #198 — a 39-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.