2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: 110-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 16 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jacob Eason (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #105 (range #68-#142, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 23% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brett Hundley (Starter), Joshua Dobbs, Cody Kessler (Starter). Ceiling is Cody Kessler (Starter); floor is Chad Kelly. PPA avg_all 0.296 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 30 spots below the room's consensus #75 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects James Morgan (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #215 (range #171-#259, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 39% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Trevor Siemian (Franchise), Brad Kaaya, Sean Mannion (Franchise). Ceiling is Sean Mannion (Franchise); floor is Mike White (Backup). Drafted #125 by NYJ in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #136 and the model won't take him before #215 — a 80-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.