2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: 104-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 60 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dezmon Patmon (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #229 (range #194-#264, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 60% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Devin Funchess (Franchise), Stefon Diggs (Franchise), Isaiah McKenzie (Bust). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Justin Watson (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Isaiah McKenzie, Tremon Smith. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 29 spots below the room's consensus #200 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Donovan Peoples-Jones (age 21.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #125 (range #99-#151, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Isaiah McKenzie (Bust), Demarcus Robinson (Contributor), Kolby Listenbee. Ceiling is Russell Gage (Starter); floor is Malachi Dupre. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Isaiah McKenzie. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 29 spots below the room's consensus #96 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.