3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Glasgow (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #209 (range #181-#237, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Quentin Poling (Bust), Vince Biegel (Bust), Antwione Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Jermaine Carter Jr. (Contributor); floor is Quentin Poling (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Quentin Poling, Vince Biegel, Antwione Williams (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #209 stands alone — and with bust risk at 45%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Troy Dye (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #109 (range #66-#152, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 15% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust), Shaquille Leonard (Franchise), Peter Kalambayi (Bust). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Peter Kalambayi, Vince Biegel. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 27 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Clay Johnston (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #146-#242, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 46% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Quentin Poling (Bust), Jermaine Carter Jr. (Contributor), Matthew Adams (Bust). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Jermaine Carter Jr. (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Quentin Poling, Matthew Adams, Peter Kalambayi. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #194 stands alone — and with bust risk at 46%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.