3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Prince Tega Wanogho as a mid-round flyer at #111 (range #73-#149, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 71% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jamarco Jones (Contributor), Ronnie Stanley, John Theus. Ceiling is Orlando Brown Jr. (Franchise); floor is Jamarco Jones (Contributor). RAS 2.34 (23th percentile vs OT prospects in a 358-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #80 and the model won't take him before #111 — a 31-spot markdown. The discount is earned — athletic profile below nfl threshold leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Ben Bredeson as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #82 (range #28-#136, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Braden Smith (Franchise), Joshua Garnett, Vadal Alexander. Ceiling is Braden Smith (Franchise); floor is Vadal Alexander. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #82 sits within 11 spots of the room's #93 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 6% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects John Simpson as a mid-round flyer at #150 (range #100-#200, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Braden Smith (Franchise), Spencer Drango, Vadal Alexander. Ceiling is Braden Smith (Franchise); floor is Vadal Alexander. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #118 and the model won't take him before #150 — a 32-spot markdown. The 32-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.