3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects John Penisini (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #183 (range #167-#199, wide band). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ryan Glasgow (Bust), Vincent Valentine (Bust), David Parry (Franchise). Ceiling is David Parry (Franchise); floor is Carl Davis (Starter). RAS 2.37 (23th percentile vs DT prospects in a 312-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #183 vs consensus #215), and at a 10% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Bravvion Roy (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #203 (range #186-#220, wide band). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Anthony Zettel (Starter), Darius Kilgo (Starter), Vincent Taylor (Bust). Ceiling is David Parry (Franchise); floor is Darius Kilgo (Starter). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #203 stands alone — and with bust risk at 4%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Jashon Cornell (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #233 (range #202-#264, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Gabe Wright (Franchise), Michael Bennett (Starter), Joshua Frazier. Ceiling is Gabe Wright (Franchise); floor is Joshua Frazier. Drafted #235 by DET in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #233 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.