2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: 122-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 29 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Vernon Scott (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #183-#259, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 36% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Adrian Amos (Franchise), Foyesade Oluokun (Starter), Damarious Randall (Franchise). Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Foyesade Oluokun (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #221 stands alone — and with bust risk at 36%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Daniel Thomas (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #99 (range #72-#126, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Lano Hill (Bust), K.J. Dillon (Bust), Natrell Jamerson (Bust). Ceiling is Adrian Amos (Franchise); floor is T.J. Green (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Lano Hill, K.J. Dillon, Natrell Jamerson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #99 stands alone — and with bust risk at 7%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.