3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Denzel Mims (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #57 (range #19-#95, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Chris Godwin (Bust), Antonio Callaway (Contributor), Will Fuller (Starter). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Kolby Listenbee. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #37 — don't pay sticker price. The 20-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Chase Claypool (age 21.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #122 (range #96-#148, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Antonio Callaway (Contributor), Corey Coleman (Starter), Chris Godwin (Bust). Ceiling is Corey Coleman (Starter); floor is Antonio Callaway (Contributor). RAS 8.84 (88th percentile at WR). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Chris Godwin, John Ross. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #77 and the model won't take him before #122 — a 45-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Brandon Aiyuk (age 22.1 at draft) as a first-round pick at #32 (range #1-#82, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Courtland Sutton (Franchise), Christian Kirk (Franchise), D.J. Moore (Franchise). Ceiling is D.J. Moore (Franchise); floor is Keke Coutee (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #32 sits within 9 spots of the room's #41 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.