3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jauan Jennings (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #191 (range #165-#217, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Shelton Gibson (Bust), Aaron Burbridge (Bust), Kenny Lawler. Ceiling is Kenny Lawler; floor is Aaron Burbridge (Bust). Drafted #217 by SFO in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #151 and the model won't take him before #191 — a 40-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Brandon Aiyuk (age 22.1 at draft) as a first-round pick at #32 (range #1-#82, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Courtland Sutton (Franchise), Christian Kirk (Franchise), D.J. Moore (Franchise). Ceiling is D.J. Moore (Franchise); floor is Keke Coutee (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #32 sits within 9 spots of the room's #41 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Van Jefferson (age 23.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #85-#177, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Charone Peake (Contributor), ArDarius Stewart (Bust), Amara Darboh (Bust). Ceiling is Javon Wims (Contributor); floor is Charone Peake (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: ArDarius Stewart, Amara Darboh. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #131 — a 44-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.