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Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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  3. 2020 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OT)
CC
Cameron Clark
OT · Charlotte
— · — · —
LN
Lucas Niang
OT · TCU
— · — · —
EC
Ezra Cleveland
OT · Boise St.
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Cameron Clark
Predicted pick
#158
range #112–#204
Bust probability· rough estimate
8%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#114
on 2 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Lucas Niang
Predicted pick
#80
range #63–#97
Bust probability· rough estimate
3%
0%comp-based · 0/4
Consensus rank
#68
on 23 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Ezra Cleveland
Predicted pick
#34
range #20–#48
Bust probability· rough estimate
1%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#58
on 27 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Cameron Clark· Offensive line
  • Lucas Niang· Offensive line
  • Ezra Cleveland· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionCameron Clark50
  • AthleticismEzra Cleveland79
  • AgeCameron Clark57
  • ConsensusEzra Cleveland41
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Cameron Clark50
  • Breakout ageCameron Clark50
  • WorkloadCameron Clark50
  • RAS × productionCameron Clark34

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Alex CappaOT · Franchise→ shared byCameron ClarkLucas Niang
Cameron Clark
  • Korey Cunningham
    OT · #254
    Contributor
  • Willie Beavers
    OT · #121
    TBD
  • Ty Sambrailo
    OT · #59
    TBD
  • Martinas Rankin
    OT · #80
    Contributor
  • Alex Cappashared
    OT · #94
    Franchise
Lucas Niang
  • Tyrell Crosby
    OT · #153
    Contributor
  • Will Richardson
    OT · #129
    Contributor
  • Antonio Garcia
    OT · #85
    TBD
  • Alex Cappashared
    OT · #94
    Franchise
  • Chukwuma Okorafor
    OT · #92
    Starter
Ezra Cleveland
  • Brian O'Neill
    OT · #62
    Franchise
  • Jason Spriggs
    OT · #48
    TBD
  • Jack Conklin
    OT · #8
    TBD
  • Connor Williams
    OT · #50
    Franchise
  • Kolton Miller
    OT · #15
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Cameron Clark
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Small-school competition
    School SP+ rating -6.3 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #112 (1=hardest).
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Lucas Niang
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #96 by KAN in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Alex Cappa, Chukwuma Okorafor. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Ezra Cleveland
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Brian O'Neill, Connor Williams, Kolton Miller. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Cameron ClarkLucas NiangEzra Cleveland· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Cameron Clark

Draftanomics projects Cameron Clark as a mid-round flyer at #158 (range #112-#204, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Korey Cunningham (Contributor), Willie Beavers, Ty Sambrailo. Ceiling is Alex Cappa (Franchise); floor is Korey Cunningham (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 18 spots below the room's consensus #140 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — small-school competition leads the case against.

Lucas Niang

Draftanomics projects Lucas Niang as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #80 (range #63-#97, wide band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tyrell Crosby (Contributor), Will Richardson (Contributor), Antonio Garcia. Ceiling is Alex Cappa (Franchise); floor is Tyrell Crosby (Contributor). Drafted #96 by KAN in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #80 sits within 11 spots of the room's #69 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 3% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Ezra Cleveland

Draftanomics projects Ezra Cleveland as a Day 2 pick at #34 (range #20-#48, wide band). Bust probability sits at 1% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brian O'Neill (Franchise), Jason Spriggs, Jack Conklin. Ceiling is Connor Williams (Franchise); floor is Jason Spriggs. The call is a value lean: #34 against a consensus #59 is a 25-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.