3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Cameron Clark as a mid-round flyer at #158 (range #112-#204, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Korey Cunningham (Contributor), Willie Beavers, Ty Sambrailo. Ceiling is Alex Cappa (Franchise); floor is Korey Cunningham (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 18 spots below the room's consensus #140 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — small-school competition leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Lucas Niang as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #80 (range #63-#97, wide band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tyrell Crosby (Contributor), Will Richardson (Contributor), Antonio Garcia. Ceiling is Alex Cappa (Franchise); floor is Tyrell Crosby (Contributor). Drafted #96 by KAN in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #80 sits within 11 spots of the room's #69 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 3% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Ezra Cleveland as a Day 2 pick at #34 (range #20-#48, wide band). Bust probability sits at 1% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brian O'Neill (Franchise), Jason Spriggs, Jack Conklin. Ceiling is Connor Williams (Franchise); floor is Jason Spriggs. The call is a value lean: #34 against a consensus #59 is a 25-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.