3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects AJ Dillon (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #114 (range #96-#132, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Nyheim Hines (Contributor), Mark Walton (Backup), Brian Hill (Bust). Ceiling is Nyheim Hines (Contributor); floor is Mark Walton (Backup). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Mark Walton, Brian Hill, John Kelly. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 25 spots below the room's consensus #89 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Anthony McFarland Jr. (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #245 (range #227-#263, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: John Kelly (Bust), Brian Hill (Bust), Kalen Ballage (Contributor). Ceiling is Nyheim Hines (Contributor); floor is Mark Walton (Backup). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: John Kelly, Brian Hill, Mark Walton. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #118 and the model won't take him before #245 — a 127-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects DeeJay Dallas (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #222 (range #180-#264, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Nyheim Hines (Contributor), Matthew Dayes (Bust), David Cobb (Bust). Ceiling is Nyheim Hines (Contributor); floor is Mark Walton (Backup). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Matthew Dayes, David Cobb, Mark Walton. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #154 and the model won't take him before #222 — a 68-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.