3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Elliott (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #65 (range #34-#96, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Caleb Brantley (Bust), Montravius Adams (Bust), Sheldon Day (Starter). Ceiling is Sheldon Day (Starter); floor is Kentavius Street (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Caleb Brantley, Montravius Adams, Elijah Qualls. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #65 sits within 6 spots of the room's #71 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Ross Blacklock (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #96 (range #60-#132, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Taven Bryan (Contributor), Sheldon Rankins (Starter), Kentavius Street (Contributor). Ceiling is Sheldon Rankins (Starter); floor is Maurice Hurst Jr. (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #35 and the model won't take him before #96 — a 61-spot markdown. The 61-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Nnamdi Madubuike (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #77 (range #60-#94, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #42 and the model won't take him before #77 — a 35-spot markdown. The 35-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.