3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects La'Mical Perine (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #211 (range #190-#232, wide band). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Wayne Gallman (Bust), Kelvin Taylor, Samaje Perine (Bust). Ceiling is Wendell Smallwood (Starter); floor is Kelvin Taylor. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Wayne Gallman, Samaje Perine, David Cobb. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #72 and the model won't take him before #211 — a 139-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Eno Benjamin (age 21.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #217 (range #199-#235, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: John Kelly (Bust), Kalen Ballage (Contributor), Brian Hill (Bust). Ceiling is Nyheim Hines (Contributor); floor is Mark Walton (Backup). Drafted #222 by ARI in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #101 and the model won't take him before #217 — a 116-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Joshua Kelley (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #251 (range #216-#286, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Chase Edmonds (Contributor), Nyheim Hines (Contributor), Darius Jackson. Ceiling is Nyheim Hines (Contributor); floor is Darius Jackson. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Matthew Dayes, John Kelly. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #166 and the model won't take him before #251 — a 85-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.