2 prospects · 2020 draft
Quez Watkins and Isaiah Coulter project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Quez Watkins (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #214 (range #167-#261, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Moore (Bust), Justin Watson (Starter), Breshad Perriman (Starter). Ceiling is Michael Gallup (Franchise); floor is DeAngelo Yancey. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #136 and the model won't take him before #214 — a 78-spot markdown. The 78-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Coulter (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #88-#158, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Mike Thomas (Contributor), Devin Lucien, Keke Coutee (Contributor). Ceiling is Dezmin Lewis (Starter); floor is Devin Lucien. RAS 4.54 (45th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #123 sits within 4 spots of the room's #127 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 57% bust probability break ties on draft day.