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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2020 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (G)
BB
Ben Bartch
G · Saint John's (MN)
— · — · —
LS
Logan Stenberg
G · Kentucky
— · — · —
JS
John Simpson
G · Clemson
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Ben Bartch
Predicted pick
#55
range #19–#188
Bust probability
4%
Consensus rank
#158
on 22 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Logan Stenberg
Predicted pick
#106
range #26–#214
Bust probability
64%
Consensus rank
#131
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
John Simpson
Predicted pick
#150
range #37–#234
Bust probability
6%
Consensus rank
#118
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Ben Bartch· Offensive line
  • Logan Stenberg· Offensive line
  • John Simpson· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionBen Bartch50
  • AthleticismBen Bartch38
  • AgeBen Bartch78
  • ConsensusLogan Stenberg22
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Ben Bartch50
  • Breakout ageBen Bartch50
  • WorkloadBen Bartch50
  • RAS × productionJohn Simpson100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Ben Bartch
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Logan Stenberg
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
John Simpson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Ben Bartch
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Logan Stenberg
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
John Simpson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Ben BartchLogan StenbergJohn Simpson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Ben Bartch

+0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Logan Stenberg

−0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting gap run block grade; +0.03 age

John Simpson

−0.04 HS recruit rating; −0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.03 athlete×producer interaction