3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Quintez Cephus (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #190-#306, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Josh Malone (Bust), Nelson Agholor (Franchise), Auden Tate (Contributor). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Auden Tate (Contributor). RAS 3.60 (36th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #248 and the room's #248 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Freddie Swain (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #241 (range #208-#274, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Devin Fuller, Malcolm Mitchell (Bust), Keith Mumphery (Starter). Ceiling is Keith Mumphery (Starter); floor is Kenny Lawler. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Malcolm Mitchell, Jordan Payton. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #241 stands alone — and with bust risk at 4%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Dezmon Patmon (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #229 (range #194-#264, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 60% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Devin Funchess (Franchise), Stefon Diggs (Franchise), Isaiah McKenzie (Bust). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Justin Watson (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Isaiah McKenzie, Tremon Smith. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 29 spots below the room's consensus #200 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.