3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Quintez Cephus (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #190-#306, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Josh Malone (Bust), Nelson Agholor (Franchise), Auden Tate (Contributor). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Auden Tate (Contributor). RAS 3.60 (36th percentile at WR). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #248 and the room's #248 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Tyler Johnson (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #86 (range #50-#122, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tre'Quan Smith (Starter), James Washington (Contributor), Keke Coutee (Contributor). Ceiling is DJ Chark (Starter); floor is Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #86 and the room's #86 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Gabe Davis (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #60 (range #27-#93, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Contributor), Tre'Quan Smith (Starter), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Bust). Ceiling is Tre'Quan Smith (Starter); floor is Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: JuJu Smith-Schuster, J'Mon Moore. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #60 vs consensus #92), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.