3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nate Stanley (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #198 (range #156-#240, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jake Rudock (Bust), Davis Webb, C.J. Beathard (Bust). Ceiling is Trevor Siemian (Franchise); floor is Brad Kaaya. Drafted #244 by MIN in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #159 and the model won't take him before #198 — a 39-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jake Fromm (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #163 (range #116-#210, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 58% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jameis Winston (Franchise), Jake Rudock (Bust), DeShone Kizer (Bust). Ceiling is Jameis Winston (Franchise); floor is Sam Darnold (Franchise). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jake Rudock, DeShone Kizer, C.J. Beathard. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #90 and the model won't take him before #163 — a 73-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Tommy Stevens (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #226 (range #182-#270, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 56% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Trevor Siemian (Franchise), Kyle Lauletta (Bust), Tanner Lee. Ceiling is Trevor Siemian (Franchise); floor is Tanner Lee. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kyle Lauletta, C.J. Beathard. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #226 stands alone — and with bust risk at 56%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.