3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Malik Harrison (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #67 (range #28-#106, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Blake Martinez (Starter), Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor), Raekwon McMillan. Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Evans, Duke Riley. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #67 against a consensus #83 is a 16-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Cam Brown (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #187 (range #144-#230, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor), Raekwon McMillan, Azeem Victor. Ceiling is Blake Martinez (Starter); floor is Azeem Victor. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #158 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Davion Taylor (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #92-#196, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust), Devante Downs (Bust), Shaquille Leonard (Franchise). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Zaire Franklin (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Devante Downs, Matthew Adams. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #111 and the model won't take him before #144 — a 33-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.