3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Yetur Gross-Matos (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #89 (range #46-#132, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Arden Key (Starter), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Contributor), Josh Sweat (Starter). Ceiling is Joey Bosa (Starter); floor is Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #30 and the model won't take him before #89 — a 59-spot markdown. The 59-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Khalid Kareem (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #138-#200, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Breeland Speaks (Bust), Geneo Grissom (Contributor), Shane Ray (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Geneo Grissom (Contributor). School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 4.86 (48th percentile at EDGE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #120 and the model won't take him before #169 — a 48-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Michael Danna (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #76 (range #59-#93, wide band). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 216 spots ahead of the room (board #76 vs consensus #292), and at a 5% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.