2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: 32-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 10 points lower and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jabari Zuniga (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #172 (range #124-#220, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Danielle Hunter (Franchise), Charles Tapper (Bust), Shane Ray (Franchise). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Alex McCalister. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Charles Tapper, Daeshon Hall. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #98 and the model won't take him before #172 — a 74-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Darrell Taylor (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #204 (range #165-#243, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: B.J. Dubose, Breeland Speaks (Bust), Geneo Grissom (Contributor). Ceiling is Za'Darius Smith (Franchise); floor is B.J. Dubose. Drafted #48 by SEA in 2020 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #89 and the model won't take him before #204 — a 115-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.