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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
TJ
Troy Pride Jr.
CB · Notre Dame
22.3 yo · 5'11" · 193 lb
DH
Darnay Holmes
CB · UCLA
21.8 yo · 5'10" · 195 lb
MO
Michael Ojemudia
CB · Iowa
22.6 yo · 6'1" · 200 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Troy Pride Jr.
Predicted pick
#115
range #64–#166
Bust probability· rough estimate
32%
Consensus rank
#147
on 23 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Darnay Holmes
Predicted pick
#149
range #101–#197
Bust probability· rough estimate
33%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#113
on 7 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Michael Ojemudia
Predicted pick
#147
range #116–#178
Bust probability· rough estimate
5%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
#133
on 5 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Troy Pride Jr.· CB / S
  • Darnay Holmes· CB / S
  • Michael Ojemudia· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTroy Pride Jr.0
  • AthleticismTroy Pride Jr.38
  • AgeDarnay Holmes87
  • ConsensusMichael Ojemudia11
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Troy Pride Jr.50
  • Breakout ageTroy Pride Jr.50
  • WorkloadTroy Pride Jr.100
  • RAS × productionTroy Pride Jr.0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Troy Pride Jr.
  • Duke Dawson
    CB · #56
    Contributor
  • Senquez Golson
    CB · #56
    TBD
  • Blake Countess
    CB · #196
    Contributor
  • Ifo Ekpre-Olomu
    CB · #241
    TBD
  • Tevin Mitchel
    CB · #182
    TBD
Darnay Holmes
  • Isaac Yiadom
    CB · #99
    Contributor
  • Artie Burns
    CB · #25
    Starter
  • Harlan Miller
    CB · #205
    Contributor
  • Cornell Armstrong
    CB · #209
    Contributor
  • Kamrin Moore
    CB · #189
    Bust
Michael Ojemudia
  • Jalen Myrick
    CB · #222
    Bust
  • Howard Wilson
    CB · #126
    TBD
  • Christian Campbell
    CB · #182
    TBD
  • Rasul Douglas
    CB · #99
    Bust
  • Nick Nelson
    CB · #110
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Troy Pride Jr.
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.93 (49th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Darnay Holmes
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.48 (44th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Kamrin Moore. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    8 boards have him at mean rank #89; model has him #149 — a 60-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Michael Ojemudia
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jalen Myrick, Rasul Douglas. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #106; model has him #147 — a 41-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Troy Pride Jr.Darnay HolmesMichael Ojemudia· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Troy Pride Jr.

Draftanomics projects Troy Pride Jr. (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #115 (range #64-#166, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 32% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Duke Dawson (Contributor), Senquez Golson, Blake Countess (Contributor). Ceiling is Duke Dawson (Contributor); floor is Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 4.93 (49th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #91 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Darnay Holmes

Draftanomics projects Darnay Holmes (age 21.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #149 (range #101-#197, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 33% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Isaac Yiadom (Contributor), Artie Burns (Starter), Harlan Miller (Contributor). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Cornell Armstrong (Contributor). RAS 4.48 (44th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #89 and the model won't take him before #149 — a 60-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Michael Ojemudia

Draftanomics projects Michael Ojemudia (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #116-#178, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Myrick (Bust), Howard Wilson, Christian Campbell. Ceiling is Nick Nelson (Contributor); floor is Christian Campbell. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jalen Myrick, Rasul Douglas. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #106 and the model won't take him before #147 — a 41-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.