2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: 103-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $21M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Josiah Scott (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #164 (range #119-#209, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Rasul Douglas (Bust), Harlan Miller (Contributor), Artie Burns (Starter). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Harlan Miller (Contributor). RAS 4.62 (46th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #102 and the model won't take him before #164 — a 62-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jaylon Johnson (age 21.0 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #61 (range #51-#71, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Carlton Davis (Starter), Donte Jackson (Starter), Mike Hughes (Starter). Ceiling is Mike Hughes (Starter); floor is Carlton Davis (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Adoree' Jackson, Sidney Jones. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 17 spots below the room's consensus #44 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.