3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects John Reid (age 23.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #201 (range #162-#240, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 54% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joshua Holsey (Bust), Anthony Averett (Contributor), Cordrea Tankersley (Bust). Ceiling is Josh Shaw (Starter); floor is Anthony Averett (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joshua Holsey, Cordrea Tankersley, Adrian Colbert. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #137 and the model won't take him before #201 — a 64-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Troy Dye (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #109 (range #66-#152, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 15% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust), Shaquille Leonard (Franchise), Peter Kalambayi (Bust). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Shaun Dion Hamilton (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Peter Kalambayi, Vince Biegel. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 27 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Bravvion Roy (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #203 (range #186-#220, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Anthony Zettel (Starter), Darius Kilgo (Starter), Vincent Taylor (Bust). Ceiling is David Parry (Franchise); floor is Darius Kilgo (Starter). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #203 stands alone — and with bust risk at 20%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.