3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kindle Vildor (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #160-#198, wide band). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Cornell Armstrong (Contributor), Kamrin Moore (Bust), Jack Tocho. Ceiling is Darius Phillips (Contributor); floor is Jack Tocho. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kamrin Moore, Jamal Agnew. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #140 and the model won't take him before #179 — a 39-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Darnay Holmes (age 21.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #149 (range #101-#197, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 33% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Isaac Yiadom (Contributor), Artie Burns (Starter), Harlan Miller (Contributor). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Cornell Armstrong (Contributor). RAS 4.48 (44th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #89 and the model won't take him before #149 — a 60-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Michael Ojemudia (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #116-#178, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Myrick (Bust), Howard Wilson, Christian Campbell. Ceiling is Nick Nelson (Contributor); floor is Christian Campbell. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jalen Myrick, Rasul Douglas. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #106 and the model won't take him before #147 — a 41-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.