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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
JL
Jake Luton
QB · Oregon St.
24.0 yo · — · —
BD
Ben DiNucci
QB · James Madison
23.4 yo · — · —
TS
Tommy Stevens
QB · Mississippi St.
23.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jake Luton
Predicted pick
#235
range #98–#250
Bust probability· rough estimate
48%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Ben DiNucci
Predicted pick
#234
range #97–#249
Bust probability· rough estimate
30%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Tommy Stevens
Predicted pick
#226
range #89–#241
Bust probability· rough estimate
26%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jake Luton· QB
  • Ben DiNucci· QB
  • Tommy Stevens· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJake Luton0
  • AthleticismJake Luton0
  • AgeTommy Stevens46
  • ConsensusBen DiNucci3
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jake Luton50
  • Breakout ageJake Luton50
  • WorkloadJake Luton50
  • RAS × productionJake Luton0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jake Luton
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Ben DiNucci
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tommy Stevens
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jake Luton
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ben DiNucci
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tommy Stevens
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jake LutonBen DiNucciTommy Stevens· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jake Luton

−0.07 age; −0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting blitz btt rate career avg

Ben DiNucci

−0.06 age; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 Power-5 production share

Tommy Stevens

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting total career snaps; −0.03 age