2 prospects · 2020 draft
Decisive factor: 174-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 43 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Sterling Hofrichter (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #219 (range #198-#240, wide band). Bust probability sits at 49% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Riley Dixon (Bust), Bradley Pinion (Bust), Johnny Townsend (Bust). Ceiling is Bradley Pinion (Bust); floor is Logan Cooke (Bust). RAS 0.61 (6th percentile vs P prospects in a 98-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #219 stands alone — and with bust risk at 49%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Braden Mann (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #45 (range #20-#70, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Michael Dickson (Bust), Logan Cooke (Bust), Johnny Townsend (Bust). Ceiling is Michael Dickson (Bust); floor is Logan Cooke (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Michael Dickson, Logan Cooke, Johnny Townsend (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 125 spots ahead of the room (board #45 vs consensus #170), and at a 6% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.